The early signs of economic recovery that governments claim to have spotted this spring have yet to brighten the almost universally dismal picture of world trade.
Both the World Trade Organisation and the World Bank are predicting a decline in trade flows of 10 per cent this year, the steepest fall in 60 years. For industrialised countries, export volumes are expected to fall by a massive 14 per cent, twice the drop predicted for the developing world.
Although there are some signs of a bottoming out, a sustained pick-up in trade flows will depend on a more generalised recovery in the world economy, not expected until later this year.
Even then, the World Bank is forecasting only modest trade growth in 2010 of about 4 per cent.
The greater economic and financial integration of the world economy through multi-country supply chains and international investment has made trade an increasingly potent means of transmitting economic expansion – and contraction – around the globe.
From the outset, the fear has been that the response to recession would be a raft of protectionist measures that would stifle economic recovery.
The WTO’s third report on trade developments in the crisis, issued last week, noted “further slippage” in the past three months despite repeated pledges by world leaders to keep their markets open.
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5973376e-6af7-11de-861d-00144feabdc0.html
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