The end is in sight. Fingers crossed, after eight painful years, the European Union may at last succeed in rewriting its rule book. Passage of the Lisbon treaty will sweep aside the continent’s troubles. Europe can turn its mind to things that matter. So the story goes.
I wish I could convince myself. Ratification of the treaty does promise one obvious gain – an end to the obsessive navel-gazing that has drained the Union’s political energy. Beyond that, governments are set to discover that Lisbon solves very little. European institutions are as strong as the political leadership in national capitals.
Here, Europe suffers from a notable deficit. France’s Nicolas Sarkozy has the energy and ambitions, but lacks the necessary patience and diplomatic skill. Germany’s Angela Merkel, set after her election victory to build a coalition of choice, hugs the status quo. David Cameron, likely to be Britain’s next prime minister, waves the banner of little England. No need to dwell on Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi.
The Union, of course, can work without Lisbon. We have seen the proof in the response – ragged at first but ultimately quite effective – to the global financial crisis. There is heavy lifting ahead – notably to preserve the single market and keep borders open to the world – but this has little to do with treaty changes.
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